For 17 straight days the gauge has been trading within 1 per cent of the level, tying the longest streak since 1995. By Elena Popina
For evidence it hasn’t been business as usual for the stock market lately, consider a feat of price acrobatics it just pulled off that has almost no precedent in two decades of trading history.
It’s the S&P 500 Index’s recent refusal to deviate from a technical level known as the 50-day moving average, which is taking on historic dimensions. For 17 straight days the gauge has been trading within 1 per cent of the level, tying the longest streak since 1995.
While not front-page news, the phenomenon is notable for what it shows about investor psychology. Mostly absent from August was the mechanical upward march that sent equities to 30 record closes this year. In its place was a more typical back-and-forth, arguably befitting a market where valuations are stretched and alert levels are rising.
Stocks fell more than 1 per cent on both Aug. 17 and Aug. 10. That had happened only once before since March.
“There is nothing new that drives the market upwards, but also no vivid reason to sell, so people are looking for a catalyst,” said Katrina Lamb, head of investment strategy and research at Bethesda, Maryland-based MV Capital Management Inc.
The S&P 500 rose 1.4 per cent for the week and ended August with a gain of less than 0.1 per cent, the smallest increase since March though still the ninth advance in 10 months. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 174 points over the five days, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rallied 2.7 per cent to a record.
Investors entering the calendar’s worst month for stocks must decide whether August’s indecision is a sign of worse to come. At 10 per cent in the S&P 500, 11 per cent in the Dow and 19 per cent in the Nasdaq, the three major indexes are already sitting with year-to-date gains that would look impressive if they held through December. Add to that anxiety over North Korea and the debt ceiling, and even bulls may be wondering if it’s worth it to hang on.
September is historically a rough month for U.S. stocks, with equities on average losing about 1 per cent, data compiled by S&P Global show. Traders are taking precautions. Put contracts on the largest exchange-traded fund tied to the S&P 500 outnumber calls by 2-to-1.
The outcome of the Federal Reserve’s meeting and debt-ceiling discussions are among events that could push the index lower from its near-record high. Investors including Advisors Asset Management’s Chief Executive Officer Scott Colyer remain undaunted, citing optimism about better-than expected economic growth and robust earnings.
“I see a healthy dose of pessimism out there, but it seems like stocks will go higher before they go lower,” Coyler said. “There will be more tension as everyone will be trying to figure out when is the right time to sell.”